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Oct 5
3 min

Availability heuristic and decisions on thin ice

THIS POST was first published in April 2012. It follows my previous post on heuristics and decision-making. It has been updated to inclu...

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Blinded by coincidence (i.e. sometimes s#!t happens)

Ozzie Paez

Sep 28
3 min

Blinded by coincidence (i.e. sometimes s#!t happens)

THIS POST was first published in June 2012. It's been updated to include new lessons and research in the science and craft of decision-ma...

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Ozzie Paez

May 21
2 min

Surviving the COVID economy

I counted more than ten failed businesses during a recent walk. There were many others whose operations were visibly unprofitable...

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Ozzie Paez

Mar 10
1 min

Riding bad data to lousy decisions

...we often lend automatic credibility to information and decisions based on data. It’s reasonable in many instances, but not always.

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Ozzie Paez

Jan 4
1 min

Soleimani's lost utility-A lesson

There is an important lesson for strategists and political, military, and business leaders in the killing of General Soleimani...

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Ozzie Paez

Jan 8, 2019
2 min

Imagineering at Tiffins

I dined at Tiffins restaurant with my daughter and a school friend on our last evening at Disney’s Animal Kingdom. Allan, our culinary gu...

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Hindsight: tripping over the past on our way to the future

Ozzie Paez

Jun 6, 2018
3 min

Hindsight: tripping over the past on our way to the future

Hindsight bias is one of the most seductive, influential and damaging cognitive traps. Research suggests that we’re susceptible to judgin...

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Biases and the dangers of feeling certain

Ozzie Paez

Jun 5, 2018
2 min

Biases and the dangers of feeling certain

Strong beliefs can undermine our ability to analyze facts and make informed decisions. They promote biases that compromise our ability t...

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