Previous posts described post-lockdown uncertainties and implications for business models and decision-making. They also introduced a framework to help business owners cope, clarify, and overcome uncertainties in the emerging economy.
This post discusses the OPR Framework’s application to social businesses, particularly restaurants, which include casual and fine dining, bars, and fast food. The results identified two leading causes of uncertainties: government intrusions and unpredictable customer behavior in the face COVID-19 health risks and uncertainties.
Government intrusions include mandates like minimum distances between tables, bar sitting prohibitions, and reduced (30-50%) occupancy limits. These constraints effectively rendered many restaurant and bar operations unprofitable and unsustainable. The duration of these mandates and the potential for additional lockdowns are also adding operational and financial uncertainties.
Customer fears, fanned by government, news, and social media, are major sources of uncertainty. No one presently knows when people will return to dining out in enough numbers to sustain a vibrant restaurant industry. Early estimates suggest that 20 – 40% of casual and fine dining restaurants and bars will permanently go out of business.
The next post will drill into our findings with examples.