"The most dangerous decision-making fallacy is that informed decision-makers will naturally make better, more objective decisions. Making consistently timely, effective, informed decisions takes hard work. Trust me – it’s worth it. Effective decision-making is the essential common ingredient behind every successful step, initiative, and strategy that people, organizations, and national governments undertake."
According to a recent survey, a majority of Fortune 500 CEOs see Artificial Intelligence (AI) as a big challenge[i]. Their feelings are spot on because smart technologies, including AI, are already disrupting markets, and rendering many competitive strategies and business models obsolete. Fortunately, emerging opportunities are staggering for those prepared to exploit them. AI and related technologies are projected to add $10-$15 trillion in GDP by 2030. So – Why are CEOs
Hindsight bias is one of the most seductive, influential and damaging cognitive traps. Research suggests that we’re susceptible to judging past events as more likely than they actually were. The feeling often grows stronger with time. This largely unrecognized mental maneuver can undermine judgement and decision-making, particularly during periods of change and uncertainty. Its influence can be disastrous for negotiators, executives and policy makers. If you are a leader
Strong beliefs can undermine our ability to analyze facts and make informed decisions. They promote biases that compromise our ability to reconsider positions and beliefs in light of new evidence. One of the most common and damaging of these is confirmation bias. This cognitive trap influences us to accept information that validate our beliefs, while filtering those that disconfirm them. Internet technologies can magnify the influence of biases like confirmation bias. For
A young girl asks her Priest if she can listen to her IPod while praying. “Absolutely not!” he tells her, “God wants you focusing on Him while you pray, not be distracted by music.” The girl then tells her friends, who are all disappointed, except for Susie. She approaches the same Priest a few minutes later and asks: “Father – Is it ok if I pray while I listen to my IPod?” “Of course, my daughter,” says the Priest, “God is always happy to hear your prayers.” How we frame que